Sunday, January 31, 2010

And Baserunning Continues to Elude Us

Strolling through some articles from the most recent Cubs Convention, I found this:

"Piniella said Ryan Theriot and Kosuke Fukudome would be Nos. 1-2 in the lineup, and possibly vice-versa on occasion. Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez will follow, with either Soriano or Marlon Byrd hitting fifth...Jeff Baker will bat seventh, unless Mike Fontenot is playing second, with Geovany Soto eighth. The Cubs could have eight right-handed hitters in the lineup"
(Chicago Tribune).

So our lineup (in general) is the following:

1)Theriot/Fukudome
2)Fukudome/Theriot
3)Lee
4)Ramirez
5)Byrd/Soriano
6)Soriano/Byrd
7)Baker (sometimes Fontenot)
8)Soto
9)Pitcher
a)Nady
b)Tracy(though I do not include him in my research)

The glaring missing piece is the lack of team speed and just flat-out good baserunning. Though this is NOT the same team from 2009, it is a team that lacks in baserunning skills:

Click here for the Google doc.
(For a summary of each runner, look at the far right column called "Net Gain". It combines BR Gain and SB Gain)
What we see from the Cubs is a difference of 128 Net Gain points v. the Phillies (the best in MLB in baserunning) and 59 Net Gain points v. the Cardinals (the best in baserunning in the NL Central).


What I expect from the Cubs in 2010 is well, much of the same. They may not be last in the league in baserunning statistics, but I think they will be included with the rest of the bottom feeders (Royals, Orioles, Astros, Braves, Pirates, White Sox [scratch that, at least they have Juan Pierre...d'oh!]).

Some other stuff:
1.)Jeremy Greenhouse of Baseball Analysts wrote an excellent article regarding baserunning which you can read here. It even includes animation!
2.)Our friends at Another Cubs Blog had this to say about why the Cubs well - suck at baserunning.

2 comments:

  1. Good post, albeit a bit depressing. I still have nightmares about Soriano making the the first or 3rd out at third base, ugh

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  2. Man, I had no idea it was that bad. If you consider how, on average, 4 runs will win something around 80% of all games, being 59 runs behind the Cards is a deathblow.

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