Wednesday, April 28, 2010

Cubs Score 7 Times in 3 Games

...Yet the fans still fret over our bullpen.

Let's do some napkin math:

The average amount of runs a team scores per game (in the NL) is around 4.50 -- with better teams (i.e. the Philadelphia Phillies) scoring more, ~5.00-ish, and bad teams (i.e. the Pittsburgh Pirates) scoring less ~3.80-ish.

So, over the course of a season, if we score 3 to 4 runs per game, we will lose. In this series against the above-.500-now-but-not-for-long Washington Nationals, we scored an average of (7 divided by 3) 2.33 runs. Unsurprisingly, we lost the series.

Oh! But how did the bullpen do!?

IP ERA FIP
3 0.00 2.53
2 0.00 2.70
1 0.00 3.20
6* 0.00 2.70

Note: This bottom line contains the totals. FIP in this final line was calcuated using the inning sums, not through averaging.

So the bullpen -- especially in this series -- was great. Oh, and Carlos Zambrano only pitched in one of those games (puthimback) and Carlos Marmol only added 1 inning. In other words, the "awful" part of our "awful" bullpen did 2/3 this great work (I'm not saying our bullpen is great, though, because three games is not enough to really judge a group of pitchers -- I'm just trying to identify the distinct elements of our lack of success).

So the Cubs offense has scored, to date, about 4.30 runs per game (or below average). However, if we pretend that the 12-run outburst against the Brewers did not happen, this figure drop to exactly 4.00 runs per game. Hey! That's near what the Pirates did in 2009! It would be kind of neat, if it were not so sad.

So where is our lineup asploding? I don't know. Let's plan on looking at that next.

2 comments:

  1. Shhh!!! Don't even joke like that! They might try it!

    ReplyDelete