The Wise Wait

It's very easy -- especially for those who love statistics and have short tempers, such as myself -- to say "Play A is garbage this year!" or "Player B (Vernon Wells, cough cough) is having a turnaround season!"

The truth is, this marathon is only about 15 minutes deep. A lot has yet to happen. For instance, the Baltimore Orioles are 1-10, but 9 of those 11 games came against the dominant New York Yankees and ever-formidable Tampa Bay Rays. Do we think their batters and pitchers have reliable statistics after playing 2 of the top 3 teams in world nonstop for over a week? Nah. Not likely.

Steve Slownski of DRaysBay gives us this handy reminder on what statistics are truly informative right now, which ones prove useless until later:

Offense Statistics:
  • 50 PA: Swing%
  • 100 PA: Contact Rate
  • 150 PA: Strikeout Rate, Line Drive Rate, Pitches/PA
  • 200 PA: Walk Rate, Ground Ball Rate, GB/FB
  • 250 PA: Fly Ball Rate
  • 300 PA: Home Run Rate, HR/FB
  • 500 PA: OBP, SLG, OPS, 1B Rate, Popup Rate
  • 550 PA: ISO
Pitching Statistics:
  • 150 BF - K/PA, grounder rate, line drive rate
  • 200 BF - flyball rate, GB/FB
  • 500 BF - K/BB, pop up rate
  • 550 BF - BB/PA
Don't thank me; I'm just the messenger. These numbers were derived by the saberist Pizza Cutter and although his blog is now defunct, you can find them on the Saber Library website anytime you need them. Or if you'd prefer, read his original article here.
Now go forth and criticize wisely!

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