Thursday, May 20, 2010

The Ever Changing Carlos Silva

It was almost a month ago that Lou and Hendry fatefully moved Carlos Zambrano to the bullpen. Since then, I have examined the other Carlos, Carlos Silva, not once, but twice. This is because I feel that said second Carlos would best assist the Cubs in relief. However, Mr. Silva clearly reads this blog and has made adjustments according to my suggestions.

In other words, Silva has -- over his last two starts -- surrendered way fewer fly balls (which often become home runs) and collected buckets of ground balls (which rarely go for home runs). The result:


...Carlos Silva has become much more in line with his career norms. However, his career norms are still inferior to Carlos Zambrano's career norms, so by the Principles of Economic Profit, I continue to declare the Zambrano move foolish, at best.

If we look at the detailed graphic of Silva's latest trends, we can see how dramatically his performances have changed (note the last two dots on the far right, each is moving in the best possible direction):


What does this mean? Well, apparently the Cubs are starting to stretch Zambrano out, getting him ready for a possible return to the rotation. However, there is also the lingering possibility that Lou has just lost confidence in Big Z and is instead just making him a long man in the pen so that John Grabow can see more high-leverage situations. In which case, Lou is clearly just trying to see how often he can make me post:


Back to Silva: If ol' Carlos Silva can maintain this new, great GB/FB ratio, I'm perfectly content with moving Ted Lilly to the pen in favor of Silva and Zambrano starting. Of course, Lou will probably, instead, move Randy Wells to middle relief, bring John Grabow -- LOOGY-extraordinaire -- to the rotation, and put Zambrano on the bench for pinch hitting and so that the media can abuse him more easily.

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