I think Tango makes a good point, but I still happen to think a lot of is just luck. If you checked out that piece Studes wrote, LOB% seems to explain about 20% of xFIP so much of it still just dumb luck. Plus, I think if it's used with specific pitchers and comparing to career or recent numbers we can be even more sure it's primarily luck. I used LOB% several times last season with regards to Zambrano's poor start. I'd do the same thing again. i wouldn't do it with someone with no experience, but I think we could be fairly certain at that time that the reason he was stranding so few runners was in large part just dumb luck.
Yeah, I think I misrepresented LOB% a bit. I should have downplayed 72%, and focused more on career norms. Mo is Mo, Zambrano is Zambrano. If Mo has a Z-like LOB% in 2011, then we should assume luck played into it.
I think Tango is right in saying LOB% is a skill, but most anyone outside of that (admittedly big) window of 69-76% is probably lucky, unlucky, or a freak.
Put simply, it is the form of statistical analysis Chicago sports teams should be using. Instead, like the turn of the century days of Mordecai "Three Finger" Brown, the fans, the pundits, and at times even the organization appear to rely on statistical tools more than a century old: batting average, earned run average, and wins and losses. Sabermetrics is a combination of economics, statistics, and hardy logic -- best taken with a tankard of open-mindedness.
This blog, therefore, is an attempt to show that fans of Chicago Sports refuse to abide by primitive analysis a moment longer. It is a call to reasoning and in-depth statistical investigation, to optimized management of team resources, and to congenial debate about the means of achieving success.
Above all, go Cubs! Go White Sox! Go Bears! Go Bulls! Go Blackhawks! And go Fire!
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These videos are fantastic. "Problem, Tango?"
ReplyDeleteThe tragedy is: It sounds like Tango DOES indeed have a problem with LOB%. :(
ReplyDeleteYES!
ReplyDeleteCan't wait for the wOBA one.
ReplyDeleteI think Tango makes a good point, but I still happen to think a lot of is just luck. If you checked out that piece Studes wrote, LOB% seems to explain about 20% of xFIP so much of it still just dumb luck. Plus, I think if it's used with specific pitchers and comparing to career or recent numbers we can be even more sure it's primarily luck. I used LOB% several times last season with regards to Zambrano's poor start. I'd do the same thing again. i wouldn't do it with someone with no experience, but I think we could be fairly certain at that time that the reason he was stranding so few runners was in large part just dumb luck.
ReplyDeleteGreat videos by the way.
Thanks, mb!
ReplyDeleteYeah, I think I misrepresented LOB% a bit. I should have downplayed 72%, and focused more on career norms. Mo is Mo, Zambrano is Zambrano. If Mo has a Z-like LOB% in 2011, then we should assume luck played into it.
I think Tango is right in saying LOB% is a skill, but most anyone outside of that (admittedly big) window of 69-76% is probably lucky, unlucky, or a freak.