Monday, January 17, 2011

What is LOB%?

Here's my latest video. (Originally posted on DRaysBay.)

6 comments:

  1. These videos are fantastic. "Problem, Tango?"

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  2. The tragedy is: It sounds like Tango DOES indeed have a problem with LOB%. :(

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  3. Can't wait for the wOBA one.

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  4. I think Tango makes a good point, but I still happen to think a lot of is just luck. If you checked out that piece Studes wrote, LOB% seems to explain about 20% of xFIP so much of it still just dumb luck. Plus, I think if it's used with specific pitchers and comparing to career or recent numbers we can be even more sure it's primarily luck. I used LOB% several times last season with regards to Zambrano's poor start. I'd do the same thing again. i wouldn't do it with someone with no experience, but I think we could be fairly certain at that time that the reason he was stranding so few runners was in large part just dumb luck.

    Great videos by the way.

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  5. Thanks, mb!

    Yeah, I think I misrepresented LOB% a bit. I should have downplayed 72%, and focused more on career norms. Mo is Mo, Zambrano is Zambrano. If Mo has a Z-like LOB% in 2011, then we should assume luck played into it.

    I think Tango is right in saying LOB% is a skill, but most anyone outside of that (admittedly big) window of 69-76% is probably lucky, unlucky, or a freak.

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