Monday, January 17, 2011

What is LOB%?

Here's my latest video. (Originally posted on DRaysBay.)


  1. These videos are fantastic. "Problem, Tango?"

  2. The tragedy is: It sounds like Tango DOES indeed have a problem with LOB%. :(

  3. Can't wait for the wOBA one.

  4. I think Tango makes a good point, but I still happen to think a lot of is just luck. If you checked out that piece Studes wrote, LOB% seems to explain about 20% of xFIP so much of it still just dumb luck. Plus, I think if it's used with specific pitchers and comparing to career or recent numbers we can be even more sure it's primarily luck. I used LOB% several times last season with regards to Zambrano's poor start. I'd do the same thing again. i wouldn't do it with someone with no experience, but I think we could be fairly certain at that time that the reason he was stranding so few runners was in large part just dumb luck.

    Great videos by the way.

  5. Thanks, mb!

    Yeah, I think I misrepresented LOB% a bit. I should have downplayed 72%, and focused more on career norms. Mo is Mo, Zambrano is Zambrano. If Mo has a Z-like LOB% in 2011, then we should assume luck played into it.

    I think Tango is right in saying LOB% is a skill, but most anyone outside of that (admittedly big) window of 69-76% is probably lucky, unlucky, or a freak.