Considering the Bears' QB Draft Options
I spent much of this last Bears game -- the solid performance from QB Matt Barkley notwithstanding -- thinking about the next steps for the Bears rebuilding process. In my estimation, that process will largely involve the draft because the Bears are unlikely to find a QB gem in free agency. I think the likes of Colin Kaepernick, Tony Romo, or even possibly Tyrod Taylor
could be available this offseason, but each of them comes with either a known ceiling or age-related risks that draft QBs don't have.
What's tricky is that this year's draft is plump full of RB prospects -- which really isn't a position of great need for the Bears. And more than that, RBs don't really have the same impact as QBs, especially as the league moves further towards a passing league.
Take a look at Pro-Football Reference's average values (yeah, not a great stat, basically just a measurement of playing time, but still) per pick and round for running backs:
And holding the Y-scale the same, the QBs:
Two things are very obvious: The RBs drafted in the second and third rounds had only marginally less value than first round RBs. And secondly: While good QBs came from all over the draft, they came more frequently in the first round of the draft.
This is just to say, really to myself more than anyone else, that regardless of how tempting RB Dalvin Cook looks, QB Joe First-rounder is not only a safer, but a smarter choice -- and those two aren't always connected. We just have to hope the Vikings don't take Cook.